PanamaTimes

Thursday, Apr 25, 2024

Americans got smaller raises in December — and it could be exactly what we need to avoid a 2023 recession

Americans got smaller raises in December — and it could be exactly what we need to avoid a 2023 recession

With the December data on employment, you get the best of both worlds: a good labor market and a reduced chance of a recession.

Americans were getting jobs and raises in December, and it's good news all around for the economy.

The economy added 223,000 jobs in December, above the 200,000 payrolls economists surveyed by Bloomberg estimated, according to the latest report on employment from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rate came down, standing at a historically low 3.5%. At the same time, wages went up, but at a more moderate clip.

"Today's job report showed that we can still have a robust pace of hiring, even as wages begin to stabilize back toward a more sustainable level," Aaron Terrazas, chief economist at Glassdoor, told Insider on Friday.

All of that is good news for workers, and for the economy as a whole. The data is exactly what the Federal Reserve has been asking for — and means the central bank may not trigger a recession. The Fed has been trying to cool wage growth in an attempt to curb inflation, and it's hiked interest rates seven times in 2022 to do just that. Friday's data might show that the labor market has executed that successfully.

Nick Bunker, economic research director at job site Indeed, told Insider that he's not sure how much Friday's report will affect the Fed's view, but it could indicate good news.

"If what we're seeing in the average hourly earnings data is representative, or an indicator of what we might see for some other wage growth metrics or measures of wages moving forward," Bunker said, "then that will be very much welcome news" to the Fed.

Bunker added that the Fed is "just waiting on wage growth to come down, and I think that will make them feel more comfortable about the labor market and its potential impact on inflation."

Average hourly earnings increased 4.6% year-over-year in December, a small dip from the 4.8% year-over-year change in both October and November. It shows a continued decline from the highs seen last spring and summer. Bunker said that wage growth "is still robust but starting to moderate a little bit."



Revisions to the earnings data as a result of BLS seeing more survey results from previous months was important in showing this cooling, especially because the data in October and November originally had higher readings. 

"If you looked at the average hourly earnings data at 8:29 a.m. this morning, you would've thought, okay, wow, there's no clear signs of moderation in wage growth," Bunker said on Friday, given the BLS report came out at 8:30 a.m. that morning.

And wage growth has slowed even more when looking at data from the most recent months, rather than just the year-over-year change. Julia Pollak, the chief economist at the job site ZipRecruiter, looked at annualized three-month moving average wage growth rates and told Insider that "with the revisions to the last two months of data, the November reading now is 4.4% and the December reading is 4.0%."


Wage growth slowdown could help the Fed fight inflation — and still get workers raises


While uncertainty toward the future of the economy has dominated the Fed's recent decisions, this latest jobs data might help the central bank reach its goal of lowering prices for Americans while avoiding an economic downturn. 

During the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, when the Fed announced it would be raising interest rates by 50 basis points, Fed Chair Jerome Powell expressed concerns with the wage growth he had been seeing up to that point, and the challenges the growth presented to the bank's goal of reaching the pre-pandemic 2% inflation level.

"We want strong wage increases," Powell said. "We just want them to be at a level that's consistent with 2 percent inflation. Right now, if you factor in productivity estimates, standard productivity estimates, wages are running, you know, well above what would be consistent with 2 percent inflation."

"We will be looking for wages moving, you know, down to more normal levels where workers are doing well and, ultimately, their gains are not being eaten up by inflation," he added.

And in the FOMC minutes from the December meeting, participants also expressed the importance of lowering wage growth to meet the 2% inflation level goal — and until that would happen, they said it will be necessary to continue tightening by raising interest rates. 

Not one participant said it would be appropriate to cut rates in 2023, but the latest data on diminishing wage growth could signal the Fed may continue to slow the hikes to fight rising prices.

Labor Secretary Marty Walsh said that this report "contradicts all those conversations" about a recession.

"You're talking about 223,000 jobs added to the economy," Walsh told Insider. "We're seeing wage growth at 4.6% year-over-year. We're seeing opportunities of good jobs being created, particularly with folks without college degrees."

"The skeptics will say, well, there's layoffs in the tech sector and different areas, a recession's coming," Walsh added. "I don't necessarily qualify that as a recession." 

For American workers, the latest data means that they might be able to have their cake and eat it too — wages going up as inflation slowly cools, but no recession on the other side.

"This does give hope that you can have the best of those both worlds," Terrazas said.

Newsletter

Related Articles

PanamaTimes
0:00
0:00
Close
Apple warns against drying iPhones with rice
In a recent High Court hearing, the U.S. argued that Julian Assange endangered lives by releasing classified information.
Global Law Enforcement Dismantles Lockbit Ransomware Operation
Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny has died at the Arctic prison colony
The President of Argentina Javier Mile does not fly private, he flies commercial, with the citizens he represents. And they LOVE him for it.
Bitcoin Reaches $50,000 for First Time in Over Two Years
Belo Horizonte: Brazil's Rising Carnival Hotspot for 2024
In El Salvador, the 'Trump of Latin America' stuns the world with a speech slamming woke policing after winning a landslide election
Tucker’s interview with Putin is over 50M views on X within the first 5 hours.
Finnish Airline, Finnair, is voluntarily weighing passengers to better estimate flight cargo weight
President Nayib Bukele has proudly announced El Salvador's remarkable achievement of becoming the safest nation in the Western Hemisphere.
Former Chilean President Sebastian Piñera Dies in Helicopter Crash
This farmer seems to understand science a bit more than the event organizer, Klaus Schwab.
Facebook turns 20: From Mark Zuckerberg's dormitory to a $1trn company
The Coolest Dictator in the World" on the Path to Victory in El Salvador
Macron, France and fake news
Indian-Origin Man 'King' Arrested For Smuggling $16 Million Drugs Into US
Can someone teach Americans that not every person with slanted eyes is Chinese?
Europe's Farmers Feeding the People, Protesting Against Politicians Who Do Nothing for Their Country and Serve Only Themselves at Taxpayers' Expense
Paris Restaurant That Inspired 'Ratatouille' Loses $1.6 Million Worth Of Wine
Brazilian Police Investigate Bolsonaro's Son for Alleged Illegal Spying
Police in Brazil Raid Residence of Bolsonaro Associate Over Allegations of Illegal Spying
Border Dispute Escalates as Texas Governor Vows Increased Razor Wire
OpenAI Enhances ChatGPT-4 Model, Potentially Addressing AI "Laziness" Issue
The NSA finally acknowledges spying on Americans by acquiring sensitive data
Report Reveals Toxic Telegram Group Generating X-Rated AI-Generated Fake Images of Taylor Swift
US Border Patrol States 'No Plans' to Remove Razor Wire Installed in Texas
Bitcoin Experiences Approximately 20% Decline in Value
Klaus Schwab recently appointed himself as the Earth's "trustee of the future."
DeSantis Drops Out, Endorses Trump.
Nikki Haley said former President Trump is "just not at the same level" of mental fitness as he was while president in 2016.
Residents of a southern Mexican town set the government palace on fire in response to the police killing of a young man
Samsung Launches AI-Driven Galaxy S24, Ushering in New Smartphone Era
Judge Questions SEC's Regulatory Overreach in Coinbase Lawsuit
The Ecuador prosecutor who was investigating the television studio attack, has been assassinated.
Is artificial intelligence the solution to cyber security threats?
Vivek Ramaswamy suspends his US election campaign and endorses Trump.
Viral Satire: A Staged Satirical Clip Mistaken as Real Footage from the 2024 World Economic Forum in Davos
The AI Revolution in the Workforce: CEOs at Davos Predict Major Job Cuts in 2024
Ecuador Reports 178 Hostages in Prison Gang Standoff
The Startling Cuban Espionage Case That Has Rattled the US Government
Two Armed Men in Ecuador, Dressed as Batman and The Joker Storm the Streets.
Armed Gang Raids Ecuadorian TV Station Following State of Emergency Declaration
Anti-Democratic Canada: Journalist Arrested for Questioning Canadian Finance Minister on Support of Terrorist Group
Ecuador's 'Most-Wanted' Criminal Vanishes from Prison
Mexican Cartel Supplied Wi-Fi to Locals Under Threat of Fatal Consequences for Non-Compliance
Border Surge Leads to Over 11,000 Migrants Waiting in Northern Mexico
Outsider Candidates Triumph in Latin American Elections
As Argentina Goes to the Polls, Will the Proposal to Replace the Peso with the Dollar Secure Votes?
Fatal Shark Attack Claims Life of Boston Woman Paddleboarding Near Bahamas Resort, According to Police
×